Volume and Valuation: What Pre-IPO Perps Signal for Anthropic’s IPO

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Activity on Anthropic pre-IPO perpetuals has ramped up after the company publicly filed its S-1 prospectus with the SEC on October 26, 2026. Per the WSJ, Anthropic is aiming to go public as soon as November 16, giving traders about three more weeks to participate in early price discovery via pre-IPO perpetuals. We explore the latest activity trends in these instruments and compare them to observations around the SpaceX IPO and SK Hynix uplisting earlier this year.

Open Interest of $134M is Up 8X in 10 Weeks

Open interest on Anthropic pre-IPO perpetuals markets across Binance, OKX, Bybit, Hyperliquid, and Lighter has increased steadily since late August, as IPO headlines began to swirl in the media. Binance was the primary venue for Anthropic perps early on; open interest shifted to Hyperliquid once Entropy launched its market, while Lighter's Robinhood Chain instance became the largest venue by volume. The relatively new HIP-3 deployer Entropy launched its Anthropic market on August 19, while the leading deployer Trade[XYZ] waited until the S-1 was filed to launch theirs. Trade[XYZ] was behind some of the largest pre-IPO perp markets on Hyperliquid earlier in the year, so it is possible volume on the platform will increase. Part of the reason for the timing discrepancy of these HIP-3 markets is that Trade[XYZ] uses share price as the reference price, typically relying on the share count disclosures in the S-1, whereas Entropy pre-IPO perps reference valuation.

Open interest (OI) first closed above $100M on October 6, before dipping. It has held above $100M since October 19 and currently stands at $134M as of October 27, the first full day of trading on Trade[XYZ]'s market. Open interest largely concentrated across Hyperliquid (48%, inclusive of both Entropy and Trade[XYZ] markets) and Binance (39%) as of October 27.

Volume continues to trend up and stood at a 7D daily average of $72M, as of October 27, with daily volume clearing $100M just twice so far (Oct 15 and 26). Volume is more spread out across venues, and Lighter led over the last 7 days with 56% of volume, ahead of Hyperliquid (21%) and Binance (20%). Lighter’s Robinhood Chain instance sees an outsized share of trading activity despite relatively low open interest, potentially due to incentives there (reports of $11M of committed LIT token rewards). 

So far, 66% of the trailing 30D trading activity on Binance, OKX and Hyperliquid sits outside US market hours, in line with the 69% observed for SpaceX pre-IPO perps in the 30D before listing. 

Depth and Spreads

Anthropic perp spreads are already tight at 1.6 bp median top of book spread, in line with SK Hynix (1.6 bp) and tighter than SpaceX (2.9 bp, or 1.7 bp excluding Ventuals) at the same point before listing (D-30 to D-11). Traders can expect spreads to compress further as liquidity continues to build into the listing.

Depth within 10 bp of the mid averaged about $36K over the last 7 days across Binance, OKX and Hyperliquid ($21K of bids and $15K of asks), or about 3.5 bps of open interest. Hyperliquid holds just over half of it (Entropy 51%, Trade[XYZ] 2%), ahead of Binance (41%) and OKX (6%).¹

Volatility

The Anthropic perps are currently realizing around 35% to 40% vol, roughly 2x the Nasdaq-100 and roughly in line with AI/tech peers such as Meta and Broadcom, per data from Bloomberg. However, this is well below realized vol on recent listings (SpaceX 64%, SK Hynix 65% over the last 30 days) and their perps' own activity before listing (SpaceX perps 85% and SK Hynix perps 127% realized on hourly data, versus about 50% for Anthropic perps on the same basis), suggesting Anthropic perps vol may be cheap today if history repeats. Many mega-cap AI equities trade at implied vols above their realized, so proxy hedges through them may be expensive. 

The Valuation Perps are Pricing

As of October 27, pre-IPO perps imply a valuation of approximately $1.9T, twice Anthropic's last private round and compares to recent media reports of expectations for $1.5T and $2T. The composite valuation across venues peaked at approximately $2.2T on September 9 and is now around 15% lower. Drivers lower may have been weakness in AI infrastructure stocks (CoreWeave -37% and Oracle -19% since September 9, while the Nasdaq-100 is up 1%, per data from Bloomberg), alongside an October 15 Reuters report that investors who attended Anthropic’s investor day discussed a valuation of $1.5T, versus prior expectations of $2T. 

Considering this, it is notable that pre-IPO perpetual markets are currently pricing Anthropic near the top end of the reported $1.5T-$2T range. The rising volume and open interest give the price discovery more weight. The largest market by open interest, Entropy on Hyperliquid ($56M, 42% of the total), implies about $1.88T, in line with Binance, the second largest ($53M, also $1.88T).

Across markets that reference a valuation, the range dispersion across valuations was 3.1% on October 27 ($1.88T-$1.94T), against a 4.0% median since August 19.²   

How Activity Compares to SPCX and SK Hynix Pre-IPO Perps

At approximately 20 days³ out to IPO, aggregate Anthropic perps open interest ($122M on Binance, OKX and Hyperliquid; $134M across all venues) is tracking in between SpaceX ($80M) and SK Hynix ($234M) at the same point in time. 

However, volume/open interest is lower at the same point in time for Anthropic perps on its core venues (0.3x via Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid), and even when including Lighter and Bybit (0.6x). SpaceX and SK Hynix perps saw turnover of 1.2x and 1.5x, respectively, at this point. This sets the stage for a potentially significant step-up in Anthropic perps volume as the listing day approaches.

Activity Projections

SpaceX perps traded $8.7B on listing day, about 135x their trailing 7D average volume at D-20 ($64M a day); SK Hynix perps traded $4.3B, about 16x their  $271M 7D average volume. Open interest rose 5.7x (SpaceX) and 4.3x (SK Hynix) from D-20 to listing day.

Applying this range to Anthropic perps implies open interest of approximately $525M to $693M on listing day (about $600M at the midpoint) and roughly $0.5B to $4.2B in listing-day volume (16x to 135x the $31M a day average on those three venues over the last 7 days). Note that to keep a like-for-like comparison in projections, we only consider activity on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid. Activity could be even greater when including Lighter, Bybit, and other venues.

Venue mix could matter this time: Binance carried 57%-59% of core perps volume in the 30 days before the SpaceX and SK Hynix listings and 63% after, while Hyperliquid's share declined (SpaceX 24% to 16%, SK Hynix 28% to 22%). Anthropic's volume is split more evenly, with Binance at 47% and Hyperliquid at 48% over the last 30 days, so listing-day flow may route differently. 

Regarding valuation at listing, the pre-open perp was above the IPO price both times. SpaceX priced 22% below its pre-open perp and SK Hynix 9% below. Applied to Anthropic, this implies a valuation of  $1.49T–$1.73T at IPO, which supports the $1.5T lower bound reported. 

Takeaways

Price discovery via Anthropic pre-IPO perps is well underway and expected to grow. If past trends observed with SpaceX and SK Hynix perps hold, volumes may grow 16x-135x the current 7D average on core venues, while open interest may grow approximately 4x-6x from current levels.

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Endnotes

¹ Note we use a 10 bp band because the Hyperliquid order book data show only the best 20 price levels on each side (about 16 bp from the mid for Entropy), so wider bands capture just part of their liquidity.

² Valuation conventions by venue: Binance quotes the price per share and we apply 1B reference shares. OKX is the same with 1B reference shares, raised to 10B in the June 30 rebase (we apply 1B before that date and 10B after). Entropy and Lighter quote valuation directly, with 1 point equal to $1B. Lighter's $1B-per-point convention is inferred from its price level.

 ³ Per media reports suggesting the IPO could come the week of November 16, 2026.