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Market Commentary
Inside the Crypto Options Boom: Three Significant Shifts Shaping this Market
October 3, 2025
Alt Season Loading? Crypto's Path to Year-End Rally
The House View is your 10-minute hit on what moved markets – straight from the FalconX desk. Follow us on Spotify or Apple.
TLDR:
Markets are front-running potential Fed moves, with crypto derisking ahead of Jackson Hole. ETH and top-30 assets see rotations and derivative activity, while BTC hedges remain a focus. As crypto evolves into a macro asset, liquidity and seasonality patterns mirror traditional markets. Positioning suggests optimism for a Q4 rally - and potential signs of an alt season.
In Episode 3 of The House View, Josh Lim – Global Co-head of Markets – sits down with Matt Sheffield – Head of Spot Trading – to break down how institutional flows, Fed policy expectations, and market seasonality are shaping the current crypto landscape.
Key Topics Covered:
- Front-Running Jackson Hole: Crypto investors are derisking ahead of potentially hawkish Fed commentary, with rotations out of large-cap names and derivative markets releasing tension.
- Where Value is Today: Top-30 assets supported by treasury vehicles remain attractive, with call-funded put strategies helping investors hedge risk and manage exposure in a market pause.
- Crypto as a Macro Asset: Increasingly, crypto moves alongside macro liquidity and seasonal trends. BTC is now driven more by macro flows than protocol technicals, broadening its appeal to institutional traders.
- Fed Policy Expectations: Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a September rate cut, much of it already priced in. Investors are taking profits and derisking, but the Fed’s easing path still supports crypto into Q4.
- Looking Ahead – Alt Season: Capital allocated by treasury vehicles later in the year could drive upside for BTC and select altcoins. Thesis-driven hedge funds continue to target fundamental names, suggesting potential positioning for a Q4 rally.
Tune into Episode 3 now on Spotify or Apple to hear the full discussion.
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