Divided House: Traders Split as Crypto Awaits Q4 Catalysts

The House View is your 10-minute hit on what moved markets – straight from the FalconX desk. Follow us on Spotify or Apple.

Crypto markets are split. Post-Labor Day, sentiment feels exhausted: some allocators are hedging downside, while others are chasing convexity in Solana, Hyperliquid, and other alt names tied to treasury vehicles and future ETFs. On the sell side, VCs are rotating out of older positions, while traditional institutions step in with fresh demand.

Exhaustion meets anticipation: traders are caught between hedging risk and chasing ETF-driven upside. Macro remains the looming driver, with non-farm payrolls and the Fed’s September decision top of mind. With markets already pricing a 90% chance of cuts, downside positioning looks crowded – leaving room for a potential squeeze if the Fed surprises dovish.

In Episode 4 of The House View, Colin Farrell, Senior Manager of Institutional Coverage, and Matt Sheffield, Head of Spot Trading, break down how traders are navigating today’s split market and what catalysts could drive flows into Q4.

Key Topics Covered:
  1. Divided House: Why sentiment is split between downside hedging and altcoin buying post-Labor Day.
  2. TradFi vs. VCs: Traditional allocators are rotating into alts while venture funds take profits on older positions.
  3. Altcoin Standouts: Solana, Hyperliquid, and other names positioned for ETFs and treasury inflows.
  4. Macro Catalysts: Non-farm payrolls, the Fed’s September meeting, and why crowded downside bets could set up a surprise rally.

Tune into Episode 4 now on Spotify or Apple to hear the full discussion.

Disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and is only intended for sophisticated or institutional investors. This material is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of FalconX or any of its affiliates. Any information contained in this material is not and should not be regarded as investment research, debt research, or derivatives research for the purposes of the rules of the CFTC or any other relevant regulatory body. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences of the transaction. This material does not constitute investment advice. To the extent permitted by law, FalconX does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication. This material may contain information regarding structured products which involve over the counter derivatives. Pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Act, over the counter derivatives are only permitted to be traded by “eligible contract participants” (“ECP”s) as defined under Section 1a(18) of the CEA (7 U.S.C. § 1a(18)). Do not invest in a structured product unless you are an ECP as relevant and fully understand and are willing to assume the risks associated with the product. Solios, Inc. is registered as a federal money services business with FinCEN. FalconX Bravo, Inc. is provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. FalconX Limited is a registered Class 3 VFA service provider under the Virtual Financial Assets Act of 2018 with the Malta Financial Services Authority. FalconX Limited, FalconX Bravo, Inc., nor Solios, Inc. are not registered with the Securities & Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. FalconX Foxtrot Pte Ltd and FalconX Golf Pte. Ltd. are not regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Insights, directly from FalconX

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